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Wikipedia: A Challenger’s Best Friend?

Author: Salem, H., & Stephany, F.
Published in: OII Blog
Year: 2020
Type: Other publications

In this blog we explain how we build a statistical model to predict US congressional elections using Wikipedia pageview data as a main indicator. We train our model on US House and Senate data from the 2016 and 2018 elections, and find it to be particularly useful in predicting the success of non-incumbent challenger campaigns. We use our model to forecast the outcomes of the 2020 US Senate election.

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